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Political Analysis
2026
20 papers
- The power of prognosis: Improving covariate balance tests with outcome information
Bicalho et al. · 2026 - Monotone ecological inference
Elzayn et al. · 2026 - On the foundations of the design-based approach
Aronow et al. · 2026 - Post-treatment problems: What can we say about the effect of a treatment among sub-groups who (would) respond in some way?
Hazlett et al. · 2026 - Estimating treatment effects on proportions with synthetic controls
Bogatyrev & Stoetzer · 2026 - Improving small-area estimates of public opinion by calibrating to known population quantities
Marble & Clinton · 2026 - Text as behavior
Wasow · 2026 - Democracy manifest or democracy latent? A unified framework for identifying regime types and transitions
ORSUN & Bas · 2026 - Using multilingual language technology to classify open-ended survey responses: Conceptions of democracy in a cross-cultural survey setting
Dahlberg et al. · 2026 - Adaptive randomization in conjoint survey experiments
Gosciak et al. · 2026 - From faces to politics: Vision-language models (sometimes) link visual demographic characteristics to ideological labels
Jeon et al. · 2026 - Correcting nonignorable nonresponse bias in turnout estimation using callback data
Li et al. · 2026 - Inference at the data’s edge: Gaussian processes for estimation and inference in the face of extrapolation uncertainty
Cho et al. · 2026 - A multilevel model for coalition governments: Uncovering party-level dependencies within and between governments
Rosche · 2026 - A dynamic discrete choice approach to attitude stability and constraint
Nepaul & Stern · 2026 - Accounting for protest voting in the U.S. congress
Fowler & Lewis · 2026 - Refining gamson: The isometric log-ratio transformation and portfolio proportionality in multiparty governments
Martin & Vanberg · 2026 - Modeling hierarchical spatial interdependence for limited dependent variables
Kagalwala & Yang · 2026 - Potential and pitfalls of audio as data for political research: Alignment, features, and classification models
Mestre & Ryan · 2026 - Survey quality and acquiescence bias: A cautionary tale
Cruz et al. · 2026
2025
49 papers
- Extractive versus generative language models for political conflict text classification
Brandt et al. · 2025 - Bayesian sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding in causal panel data models
Lz & Yamamoto · 2025 - Stay tuned: Improving sentiment analysis and stance detection using large language models
Griswold et al. · 2025 - Political DEBATE: Efficient zero-shot and few-shot classifiers for political text
Burnham et al. · 2025 - Analyzing political text at scale with online tensor LDA
Kangaslahti et al. · 2025 - Measuring politicians’ public personality traits using computational text analysis: A multimethod feasibility study for agency and communion
Birkenmaier & Lechner · 2025 - Nationally representative, locally misaligned: The biases of generative artificial intelligence in neighborhood perception
Bollen et al. · 2025 - Survey professionalism: New evidence from web browsing data
Hohenberg et al. · 2025 - Meaning beyond numbers: Introducing the plot staircase to measure graphical preferences
Andrews et al. · 2025 - Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as measurement tools for political science concepts
Halterman & Keith · 2025 - A statistical model of bipartite networks: Application to cosponsorship in the united states senate
Lo et al. · 2025 - Generative AI and topological data analysis of longitudinal panel data
Arfi · 2025 - Probabilistic record linkage using pretrained text embeddings
Ornstein · 2025 - Decomposing network influence: Social influence regression
Minhas & Hoff · 2025 - Explaining differences in voting patterns across voting domains using hierarchical bayesian models
Lipman et al. · 2025 - Measuring media criticism with ALC word embeddings
Barrie et al. · 2025 - An expert-sourced measure of judicial ideology
Cope · 2025 - Moral foundation measurements fail to converge on multilingual party manifestos
Stecker & Hopp · 2025 - Detecting formatted text: Data collection using computer vision
Colner · 2025 - Bin-conditional conformal prediction of fatalities from armed conflict
Randahl et al. · 2025 - Balancing precision and retention in experimental design
Diaz & Rossiter · 2025 - Estimating the local average treatment effect without the exclusion restriction
Markovich · 2025 - Measuring the quality of answers in political Q&as with large language models
Alvarez & Morrier · 2025 - What to observe when assuming selection on observables
Quinn et al. · 2025 - Accessibility and equity in the research process: Gender bias in elite interview recruitment
Kenney & Salchak · 2025 - Generalizing trimming bounds for endogenously missing outcome data using random forests
Samii et al. · 2025 - Fixed effects, lagged dependent variables, and bracketing: Cautionary remarks
Demetrescu et al. · 2025 - Attention and political choice: A foundation for eye tracking in political science
Jenke & Sullivan · 2025 - Mapping (a)ideology: A taxonomy of european parties using generative LLMs as zero-shot learners
Leo et al. · 2025 - Constructing vec-tionaries to extract message features from texts: A case study of moral content
Duan et al. · 2025 - Seeing Like a District: Understanding What Close-Election Designs for Leader Characteristics Can and Cannot Tell Us
Bertoli & Hazlett · 2025 - Priming bias versus post-treatment bias in experimental designs
Blackwell et al. · 2025 - Addressing measurement errors in ranking questions for the social sciences
Atsusaka & Kim · 2025 - The modifiable areal unit problem in political science
Lee et al. · 2025 - Odd profiles in conjoint experimental designs: Effects on survey-taking attention and behavior
Bansak & Jenke · 2025 - Crowdsourced adaptive surveys
Velez · 2025 - Positioning political texts with large language models by asking and averaging
Mens & Gallego · 2025 - The probability of casting a pivotal vote in an instant runoff voting election
Baltz · 2025 - Categorizing topics versus inferring attitudes: A theory and method for analyzing open-ended survey responses
Hobbs & Green · 2025 - Synthetically generated text for supervised text analysis
Halterman · 2025 - The limits (and strengths) of single-topic experiments
Clifford & Rainey · 2025 - Measuring distances in high dimensional spaces
Green et al. · 2025 - When can we trust regression discontinuity design estimates from close elections? Evidence from experimental benchmarks
Magalhaes et al. · 2025 - Adding regularized horseshoes to the dynamics of latent variable models
Binding & Koc · 2025 - Decoupling visualization and testing when presenting confidence intervals
Armstrong & Poirier · 2025 - Exponential random graph models for dynamic signed networks: An application to international relations
Fritz et al. · 2025 - MODGIRT: Multidimensional dynamic scaling of aggregate survey data
Berwick & Caughey · 2025 - Sign-Congruence, External Validity, and Replication
Slough & Tyson · 2025 - Countering non-ignorable nonresponse in survey models with randomized response instruments and doubly robust estimation
Bailey · 2025
2024
22 papers
- Multilanguage word embeddings for social scientists: Estimation, inference, and validation resources for 157 languages
Wirsching et al. · 2024 - What would you say? Estimating causal effects of social context on political expression
SCHULZ · 2024 - Improving computer vision interpretability: Transparent two-level classification for complex scenes
Scholz et al. · 2024 - News sharing on social media: Mapping the ideology of news media, politicians, and the mass public
Eady et al. · 2024 - Dynamic synthetic controls: Accounting for varying speeds in comparative case studies
Cao & Chadefaux · 2024 - Parameterizing spatial weight matrices in spatial econometric models
Tan et al. · 2024 - PopBERT. Detecting populism and its host ideologies in the german bundestag
Erhard et al. · 2024 - A novel class of unfolding models for binary preference data
Lei & Rodríguez · 2024 - Analyzing ballot order effects when voters rank candidates
Atsusaka · 2024 - Generalizing toward nonrespondents: Effect estimates in survey experiments are broadly similar for eager and reluctant participants
Moniz et al. · 2024 - [[_papers/Küpfer (2024) - Nonrandom tweet mortality and data access restrictions Comp|Nonrandom tweet mortality and data access restrictions: Compromising the replication of sensitive twitter studies]]
Küpfer · 2024 - [[_papers/Bisbee (2024) - Synthetic replacements for human survey data The perils of|Synthetic replacements for human survey data? The perils of large language models]]
Bisbee et al. · 2024 - Estimators for topic-sampling designs
Clifford & Rainey · 2024 - Flexible estimation of policy preferences for witnesses in committee hearings
Esterling & Park · 2024 - Audit experiments of racial discrimination and the importance of symmetry in exposure to cues
Leavitt & Rivera-Burgos · 2024 - Votes can be confidently bought in some ranked ballot elections, and what to do about it
Williams et al. · 2024 - How much should we trust instrumental variable estimates in political science? Practical advice based on 67 replicated studies
Lal et al. · 2024 - Estimating the ideology of political YouTube videos
Lai et al. · 2024 - Normal mode copulas for nonmonotonic dependence
Fukumoto · 2024 - Making a difference: The consequences of electoral experiments
Slough · 2024 - Using machine learning to test causal hypotheses in conjoint analysis
Ham et al. · 2024 - Vote choices and valence: Intercepts and alternate specifications
Mauerer & Tutz · 2024
2023
37 papers
- A partisan solution to partisan gerrymandering: The define–combine procedure
Palmer et al. · 2023 - Inference in linear dyadic data models with network spillovers
Canen & Sugiura · 2023 - On finetuning large language models
Wang · 2023 - Explaining recruitment to extremism: A bayesian hierarchical case–control approach
Cerina et al. · 2023 - Implementation matters: Evaluating the proportional hazard test’s performance
Metzger · 2023 - Face detection, tracking, and classification from large-scale news archives for analysis of key political figures
Girbau et al. · 2023 - A framework for the unsupervised and semi-supervised analysis of visual frames
Torres · 2023 - Dyadic clustering in international relations
Carlson et al. · 2023 - Hypothesis tests under separation
Rainey · 2023 - Generalized kernel regularized least squares
Chang & Goplerud · 2023 - Trading liberties: Estimating COVID-19 policy preferences from conjoint data
Hartmann et al. · 2023 - The effect of fox news on health behavior during COVID-19
Ash et al. · 2023 - Measuring closeness in proportional representation systems
Luechinger et al. · 2023 - Less annotating, more classifying: Addressing the data scarcity issue of supervised machine learning with deep transfer learning and BERT-NLI
Laurer et al. · 2023 - Hierarchical bayesian aldrich–McKelvey scaling
Bølstad · 2023 - Selecting more informative training sets with fewer observations
Kaufman · 2023 - : Text semantics capture political and economic narratives
Ash et al. · 2023 - Sensitivity analysis for survey weights
Hartman & Huang · 2023 - The role of majority status in close election studies
Alpino & Crispino · 2023 - Simulating party shares
Cohen & Hanretty · 2023 - Multilevel calibration weighting for survey data
Ben‐Michael et al. · 2023 - Integrating data across misaligned spatial units
Zhukov et al. · 2023 - It’s all in the name: A character-based approach to infer religion
Chaturvedi & Chaturvedi · 2023 - Introducing an interpretable deep learning approach to domain-specific dictionary creation: A use case for conflict prediction
Häffner et al. · 2023 - Mapping literature with networks: An application to redistricting
Lo et al. · 2023 - Topic classification for political texts with pretrained language models
Wang · 2023 - A nonparametric bayesian model for detecting differential item functioning: An application to political representation in the US
Shiraito et al. · 2023 - Out of one, many: Using language models to simulate human samples
Argyle et al. · 2023 - Detecting and correcting for separation in strategic choice models
Crisman‐Cox et al. · 2023 - The ideologies of organized interests and amicus curiae briefs: Large-scale, social network imputation of ideal points
Abi-Hassan et al. · 2023 - Cross-lingual classification of political texts using multilingual sentence embeddings
Licht · 2023 - Multiple hypothesis testing in conjoint analysis
Liu & Shiraito · 2023 - Acquiescence bias inflates estimates of conspiratorial beliefs and political misperceptions
Hill & Roberts · 2023 - Contagion, confounding, and causality: Confronting the three C’s of observational political networks research
Uppala & Desmarais · 2023 - Ends against the middle: Measuring latent traits when opposites respond the same way for antithetical reasons
Duck-Mayr & Montgomery · 2023 - Recalibration of predicted probabilities using the “logit shift”: Why does it work, and when can it be expected to work well?
Rosenman et al. · 2023 - When correlation is not enough: Validating populism scores from supervised machine-learning models
Jankowski & Huber · 2023
2022
23 papers
- Bridging the grade gap: Reducing assessment bias in a multi-grader class
Kates et al. · 2022 - Automated coding of political campaign advertisement videos: An empirical validation study
Tarr et al. · 2022 - Measuring swing voters with a supervised machine learning ensemble
Hare & Kutsuris · 2022 - The consequences of model misspecification for the estimation of nonlinear interaction effects
Beiser‐McGrath & Beiser‐McGrath · 2022 - Change-point detection and regularization in time series cross-sectional data analysis
Park & Yamauchi · 2022 - Blocks as geographic discontinuities: The effect of polling-place assignment on voting
Tomkins et al. · 2022 - Ordered beta regression: A parsimonious, well-fitting model for continuous data with lower and upper bounds
Kubinec · 2022 - Using conjoint experiments to analyze election outcomes: The essential role of the average marginal component effect
Bansak et al. · 2022 - Creating and comparing dictionary, word embedding, and transformer-based models to measure discrete emotions in german political text
Widmann & Wich · 2022 - Hierarchically regularized entropy balancing
Xu & Yang · 2022 - Proportionally less difficult?: Reevaluating keele’s “proportionally difficult”
Metzger · 2022 - Non-separable preferences in the statistical analysis of roll call votes
Binding & Stoetzer · 2022 - Validating the applicability of bayesian inference with surname and geocoding to congressional redistricting
DeLuca & Curiel · 2022 - Sentiment is not stance: Target-aware opinion classification for political text analysis
Bestvater & Monroe · 2022 - Balance as a pre-estimation test for time series analysis
Pickup & Kellstedt · 2022 - Statistically valid inferences from differentially private data releases, with application to the facebook URLs dataset
Evans & King · 2022 - Using multiple pretreatment periods to improve difference-in-differences and staggered adoption designs
Egami & Yamauchi · 2022 - Taking distributions seriously: On the interpretation of the estimates of interactive nonlinear models
Zhirnov et al. · 2022 - Listwise deletion in high dimensions
Wang & Aronow · 2022 - Geographic boundaries and local economic conditions matter for views of the economy
Bisbee & Zilinsky · 2022 - Quantifying bias from measurable and unmeasurable confounders across three domains of individual determinants of political preferences
Ahlskog & Oskarsson · 2022 - Polls, context, and time: A dynamic hierarchical bayesian forecasting model for US senate elections
Chen et al. · 2022 - An improved method of automated nonparametric content analysis for social science
Jerzak et al. · 2022
2021
17 papers
- A bias-corrected estimator for the crosswise model with inattentive respondents
Atsusaka & Stevenson · 2021 - Identification of preferences in forced-choice conjoint experiments: Reassessing the quantity of interest
Ganter · 2021 - Human rights violations in space: Assessing the external validity of machine-geocoded versus human-geocoded data
Stundal et al. · 2021 - Choosing imputation models
Marbach · 2021 - Implementing partisan symmetry: A response to a response
DeFord et al. · 2021 - Implementing partisan symmetry: Problems and paradoxes
DeFord et al. · 2021 - The essential role of statistical inference in evaluating electoral systems: A response to DeFord et al.
Katz et al. · 2021 - Minmaxing of bayesian improved surname geocoding and geography level ups in predicting race
Clark et al. · 2021 - Cross-domain topic classification for political texts
Osnabrügge et al. · 2021 - How populist are parties? Measuring degrees of populism in party manifestos using supervised machine learning
Cocco & Monechi · 2021 - Adaptive fuzzy string matching: How to merge datasets with only one (messy) identifying field
Kaufman & Klevs · 2021 - Topics, concepts, and measurement: A crowdsourced procedure for validating topics as measures
Ying et al. · 2021 - Assessing data quality: An approach and an application
McMann et al. · 2021 - Does conjoint analysis mitigate social desirability bias?
Horiuchi et al. · 2021 - Racing the clock: Using response time as a proxy for attentiveness on self-administered surveys
Read et al. · 2021 - What makes party systems different? A principal component analysis of 17 advanced democracies 1970–2013
Magyar · 2021 - Party positions from wikipedia classifications of party ideology
Herrmann & Döring · 2021